No Manna For Starvin' Arlen

The media acted surprised when Arlen Specter, the newest Democrat in Pennsylvania, lost to a 2-term Congressman Joe Sestak, they essentially ignored until said challenger he began attacking the longtime moderate Republican Senator.

They should have looked closer at the facts. I did, having followed these distant Congressional and Senate races with virtually no bearing on my life for no better reason than my inability to look away.

Party switches are difficult outside of places where ideology is headed in a different direction. Almost every Texas Republican in the past half century has roots in the Democratic Party (even right-wing saint Rick Perry had a D next to his name). Really, anywhere in the South, making the switch matters little. Richard Shelby of Alabama got away going Republican in 1994, as did Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado. There are few modern instances of Republicans going Democrat( former Sen. Lincoln Chafee went independent after losing as a Republican, albeit a liberal one).

But geography and personality go a long way. In Pennsylvania, with its closed primary system, it was a calculated risk for Specter. A friend once described the Keystone State as Pittsburgh to the west, Philadelphia to the east, and Alabama between. As a four-year resident during my undergrad years at Mercyhurst College, I know a little about Pennsylvania politics.

The state repeatedly elected a pro-choice moderate Republican - Tom Ridge, later the first Homeland Security secretary. Occasionally, a Rick Santorum-type ideologue sneaks to higher office, but Pennsylvania Dems and Republicans tend to be less easily defined. To defeat arch-conservative Sen. Rick Santorum, the Democrats drafted Bob Casey Jr., a pro-life Democrat, and in 2006, it was quickly game, set, election.


While he received almost no party support, Joe Sestak is no lightweight. He's a retired two-star rear admiral, one of the vets Democrats persuaded to run for Congress in 2006. He took on Curt Weldon, a Republican institution in the Philadelphia suburbs, and won handily, making him the highest-ranking veteran in Congress. He also works 18-hour days (Fred Thompson complained about the 14-hour ones).

That's as good a resume as any Democrat can bring to the table, especially in a swing state like Pennsylvania. Instead of a Pat Toomey-Specter rematch, Toomey gets a much-harder race against a guy who has knocked off a 10-term Congressman and a five-term Senator. Toomey led the anti-tax Club for Growth after leaving Congress and would have easily toppled Specter in a Republican primary or the general election.

It is funny to watch pundits flock to use this race as a national indicator. Tip O'Neill's famous "All politics is local" statement applies more than any anti-incumbency trend, especially in Pennsylvania. Demographics change, and so do the players.

Sestak's win raises the uncertainty and makes for a more compelling race, a sometimes difficult proposition in a mid-term cycle expected to repudiate the president's party.